Effects of memory on the shapes of simple outbreak trees

Genomic tools, including phylogenetic trees derived from sequence data, are increasingly used to understand outbreaks of infectious diseases. One challenge is to link phylogenetic trees to patterns of transmission. Particularly in bacteria that cause chronic infections, this inference is affected by variable infectious periods and infectivity over time. It is known that non-exponential infectious periods can have substantial effects on pathogens’ transmission dynamics. Here we ask how this non-Markovian nature of an outbreak process affects the branching trees describing that process, with particular focus on tree shapes. We simulate Crump-Mode-Jagers branching processes and compare different patterns of infectivity over time. We find that memory (non-Markovian-ness) in the process can have a pronounced effect on the shapes of the outbreak’s branching pattern. However, memory also has a pronounced effect on the sizes of the trees, even when the duration of the simulation is fixed. When the sizes of the trees are constrained to a constant value, memory in our processes has little direct effect on tree shapes, but can bias inference of the birth rate from trees. We compare simulated branching trees to phylogenetic trees from an outbreak of tuberculosis in Canada, and discuss the relevance of memory to this dataset

On positive solutions and the Omega limit set for a class of delay differential equations

This paper studies the positive solutions of a class of delay differential equations with two delays. These equations originate from the modeling of hematopoietic cell populations. We give a sufficient condition on the initial function for $t\leq 0$ such that the solution is positive for all time $t>0$. The condition is "optimal". We also discuss the long time behavior of these positive solutions through a dynamical system on the space of continuous functions. We give a characteristic description of the $\omega$ limit set of this dynamical system, which can provide informations about the long time behavior of positive solutions of the delay differential equation.Comment: 15 pages, 2 figure

ClassTR: Classifying Within-Host Heterogeneity Based on Tandem Repeats with Application to Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infections.

Genomic tools have revealed genetically diverse pathogens within some hosts. Within-host pathogen diversity, which we refer to as "complex infection", is increasingly recognized as a determinant of treatment outcome for infections like tuberculosis. Complex infection arises through two mechanisms: within-host mutation (which results in clonal heterogeneity) and reinfection (which results in mixed infections). Estimates of the frequency of within-host mutation and reinfection in populations are critical for understanding the natural history of disease. These estimates influence projections of disease trends and effects of interventions. The genotyping technique MLVA (multiple loci variable-number tandem repeats analysis) can identify complex infections, but the current method to distinguish clonal heterogeneity from mixed infections is based on a rather simple rule. Here we describe ClassTR, a method which leverages MLVA information from isolates collected in a population to distinguish mixed infections from clonal heterogeneity. We formulate the resolution of complex infections into their constituent strains as an optimization problem, and show its NP-completeness. We solve it efficiently by using mixed integer linear programming and graph decomposition. Once the complex infections are resolved into their constituent strains, ClassTR probabilistically classifies isolates as clonally heterogeneous or mixed by using a model of tandem repeat evolution. We first compare ClassTR with the standard rule-based classification on 100 simulated datasets. ClassTR outperforms the standard method, improving classification accuracy from 48% to 80%. We then apply ClassTR to a sample of 436 strains collected from tuberculosis patients in a South African community, of which 92 had complex infections. We find that ClassTR assigns an alternate classification to 18 of the 92 complex infections, suggesting important differences in practice. By explicitly modeling tandem repeat evolution, ClassTR helps to improve our understanding of the mechanisms driving within-host diversity of pathogens like Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Mapping phylogenetic trees to reveal distinct patterns of evolution

Evolutionary relationships are frequently described by phylogenetic trees, but a central barrier in many fields is the difficulty of interpreting data containing conflicting phylogenetic signals.We present a metric-based method for comparing trees which extracts distinct alternative evolutionary relationships embedded in data. We demonstrate detection and resolution of phylogenetic uncertainty in a recent study of anole lizards, leading to alternate hypotheses about their evolutionary relationships. We use our approach to compare trees derived from different genes of Ebolavirus and find that the VP30 gene has a distinct phylogenetic signature composed of three alternatives that differ in the deep branching structure

Evaluation of phylogenetic reconstruction methods using bacterial whole genomes: a simulation based study

Background: Phylogenetic reconstruction is a necessary first step in many analyses which use whole genome sequence data from bacterial populations. There are many available methods to infer phylogenies, and these have various advantages and disadvantages, but few unbiased comparisons of the range of approaches have been made. Methods: We simulated data from a defined "true tree" using a realistic evolutionary model. We built phylogenies from this data using a range of methods, and compared reconstructed trees to the true tree using two measures, noting the computational time needed for different phylogenetic reconstructions. We also used real data from Streptococcus pneumoniae alignments to compare individual core gene trees to a core genome tree. Results: We found that, as expected, maximum likelihood trees from good quality alignments were the most accurate, but also the most computationally intensive. Using less accurate phylogenetic reconstruction methods, we were able to obtain results of comparable accuracy; we found that approximate results can rapidly be obtained using genetic distance based methods. In real data we found that highly conserved core genes, such as those involved in translation, gave an inaccurate tree topology, whereas genes involved in recombination events gave inaccurate branch lengths. We also show a tree-of-trees, relating the results of different phylogenetic reconstructions to each other. Conclusions: We recommend three approaches, depending on requirements for accuracy and computational time. Quicker approaches that do not perform full maximum likelihood optimisation may be useful for many analyses requiring a phylogeny, as generating a high quality input alignment is likely to be the major limiting factor of accurate tree topology. We have publicly released our simulated data and code to enable further comparisons

A metric on phylogenetic tree shapes

The shapes of evolutionary trees are influenced by the nature of the evolutionary process but comparisons of trees from different processes are hindered by the challenge of completely describing tree shape. We present a full characterization of the shapes of rooted branching trees in a form that lends itself to natural tree comparisons. We use this characterization to define a metric, in the sense of a true distance function, on tree shapes. The metric distinguishes trees from random models known to produce different tree shapes. It separates trees derived from tropical versus USA influenza A sequences, which reflect the differing epidemiology of tropical and seasonal flu. We describe several metrics based on the same core characterization, and illustrate how to extend the metric to incorporate trees’ branch lengths or other features such as overall imbalance. Our approach allows us to construct addition and multiplication on trees, and to create a convex metric on tree shapes which formally allows computation of average tree shapes

Spin-dependent Bohm trajectories for hydrogen eigenstates

The Bohm trajectories for several hydrogen atom eigenstates are determined, taking into account the additional momentum term that arises from the Pauli current. Unlike the original Bohmian result, the spin-dependent term yields nonstationary trajectories. The relationship between the trajectories and the standard visualizations of orbitals is discussed. The trajectories for a model problem that simulates a 1s-2p transition in hydrogen are also examined.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figure